Understand every signal, score, and indicator on the platform. No jargon, just clarity. We break down the math, the data sources, and what each number means for your portfolio.
Market Mood is Invyra's proprietary composite sentiment index that measures the overall health and mood of the stock market on a 0-100 scale. Updated daily, it combines five key components to tell you whether the market is panicking, cautious, neutral, greedy, or euphoric.
Think of it as a dashboard for market psychology. When sentiment swings to extremes, opportunity often emerges for contrarian traders and value investors.
Measures SPY (S&P 500 ETF) performance versus its 200-day moving average. When price is +20% above the 200DMA, momentum scores 100. At the 200DMA, it's 50. At -20% below, it's 0. Momentum tells you if the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index measures how fast prices are moving up versus down. RSI ranges from 0 (oversold) to 100 (overbought), and we map it directly into Market Mood. High RSI signals overbought conditions; low RSI signals oversold conditions.
Based on the VIX (market volatility index), but inverted. Low volatility (calm markets) scores high; high volatility (fear) scores low. A VIX of 10 = calm (score 90). A VIX of 20 = neutral (score 50). A VIX of 50 = panic (score 0).
What percentage of S&P 100 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average? When 80% of stocks are above their 200DMA, breadth is strong and scores high. When 30% are, breadth is weak and scores low. Breadth confirms the market's overall health.
Invyra calculates the median price-to-intrinsic-value ratio across the S&P 100. When stocks are trading below intrinsic value (undervalued), valuation scores high. When stocks are overpriced, valuation scores low. This reflects the bargain level available in the market right now.
Your Market Mood score falls into one of five emotional states:
Panic (0-19): Extreme fear is gripping the market. Circuit breakers may be tripping. Contrarian investors start shopping. Most investors are selling at the worst time.
Fear (20-39): Risk appetite has dropped significantly. VIX is elevated, stocks are down, sentiment is negative. This is where deep value investors historically find their best opportunities.
Neutral (40-59): The market is balanced. No extreme emotion is driving prices. This is the time to be selective: focus on strong fundamentals, avoid chasing momentum.
Greed (60-79): Optimism is running high. Stocks are expensive. FOMO is setting in. Risk/reward is unfavorable. Consider taking profits and trimming positions.
Euphoria (80-100): Everyone is bullish. Valuations are stretched. This is when the highest percentage of retail investors are buying. Be very cautious and consider lightening exposure.
In addition to our proprietary Market Mood, Invyra displays the CNN Fear & Greed Index on your dashboard. This is a separate, well-known sentiment gauge published by CNN Money. It measures market emotion from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed) using a different methodology than Market Mood.
CNN's Index uses seven components: Market Momentum, Stock Price Strength, Junk Bond Demand, Market Volatility, Safe Haven Demand, Sector Rotation, and Put/Call Ratios. It's a broader gauge that includes sentiment signals from different markets and investor behaviors.
On your Invyra dashboard, you'll see the CNN index displayed with:
Use both indices together: Market Mood for precise valuation-based assessment, CNN for sentiment confirmation.
To understand where the market is going, you need to look at multiple timeframes. A stock can be in an uptrend on the daily chart but a downtrend on the weekly chart. Invyra's S&P 500 Trend analyzes three timeframes using moving averages, then combines them into a single sentiment: Bullish, Cautiously Bullish, Cautiously Bearish, or Bearish.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) respond faster to price changes than simple averages. When the 20-day EMA is above the 40-day EMA, the short-term trend is UP. When it's below, the trend is DOWN. This captures momentum over 1-3 weeks.
Simple Moving Averages (SMA) smooth out noise. When the 50-day SMA is above the 150-day SMA, the medium-term trend is UP. When below, it's DOWN. This captures the 2-6 month trend, filtering out short-term volatility.
The most important line in technical analysis. When price is above the 200-day SMA, the long-term trend is UP. When price is below, the trend is DOWN. This represents the 6-12 month trend and indicates the overall market direction.
Invyra tallies how many of the three timeframes are in an uptrend:
Markets don't move in a vacuum. Interest rates, inflation, credit stress, and bond yields shape every stock's valuation and risk. Macro Pulse combines five key macroeconomic signals into one dashboard so you can see whether the economic environment is a tailwind or headwind for equities.
Estimated from IEF (7-10 Year Treasury ETF). When yields rise, discount rates increase, which lowers intrinsic values of all stocks. When yields fall, valuations expand. We track 20-day trends: rising yields = headwind, falling = tailwind.
Compares long-term bonds (IEF) vs. short-term bonds (SHY) over 20 days. A flattening curve (long bonds underperforming) signals late-cycle conditions and recession risk. A steepening curve is normal and healthy. Stability is neutral.
Measured by HYG (High Yield Corporate Bonds) drawdown from 52-week high. Within -2% = calm. -2% to -5% = elevated caution. Beyond -5% = stressed (investors fleeing risky assets). Stress in credit spreads often precedes stock weakness.
Based on TIP (TIPS ETF) trend. Rising TIP = inflation expectations rising = delays rate cuts and pressures stocks. Falling TIP = disinflation = positive for equities (rate cuts becoming more likely). Watch the direction: up or down over 20 days.
Gold price divided by silver price (GLD ÷ SLV). Gold is defensive; silver is cyclical/industrial. Rising ratio = defensive/fearful markets = undervalued stocks may face more downside. Falling ratio = risk-on, recovery tailwind.
The Gold/Silver Ratio is a sophisticated leading indicator of market regime. We measure it using z-scores (statistical distance from 60-day average) and moving averages to detect four regimes:
Z-score above 1.2, rising. Gold is outperforming silver dramatically. This signals fear, defensive positioning, and often marks market tops. Recovery potential may be fading.
Z-score below -0.8, falling. Silver is outperforming gold. This signals optimism, risk-on behavior, and better tailwind for recovery. Growth and cyclicals are favored.
Extreme z-score but fading. The ratio is stretched but momentum is reversing. A potential turn in regime is forming. Stay alert for confirmation.
Normal z-score range. No extreme conviction. Macro backdrop is not pushing market sentiment strongly in either direction. Rely on individual stock fundamentals.
While Market Mood tells you about the overall market, Pulse tells you about a specific stock. It's a 0-100 sentiment score that measures whether a single company is under selling pressure, balanced, or experiencing bullish momentum.
Pulse combines three technical and momentum factors into one easy-to-read score:
Is this stock trading above or below its long-term trend? Far above = strong uptrend. At the 200DMA = neutral. Far below = strong downtrend. This is the foundation of momentum.
Is RSI rising (strength increasing) or falling (strength decreasing)? The direction matters more than the level. A rising RSI suggests building momentum; falling RSI suggests fading momentum.
Is the stock trading below intrinsic value (cheap) or above it (expensive)? A stock trading 30% below IV has massive upside potential. A stock 30% above IV may have limited margin of safety.
Below 40 = Fear (selling pressure, possibly cheap). 40-60 = Balanced (no clear signal). Above 60 = Bullish (momentum favors the upside).
Follow the smart money. Insiders, institutional investors, and politicians must disclose their trades. While retail investors often buy at peaks and sell at bottoms, insiders and super-investors tend to buy at valleys and sell before crashes. Invyra's SMI tracks all three data sources and compiles them into a single -100 to +100 score.
SEC Form 4 filings from company officers, directors, and major shareholders. We analyze buy vs. sell clusters, filter out routine sellers (option exercises), and look for concentrated buying. When the CEO and CFO both buy in the same month, that's a strong signal.
13F filings from hedge funds, mutual funds, and super-investors (Buffett, Lynch, etc.). We track position changes quarter over quarter. Legendary investors increasing positions signal confidence. Mass exits signal concern.
STOCK Act disclosures from U.S. Congressional members. While politicians' stock picks are less reliable than the other two sources, patterns of buying or selling certain sectors can signal awareness of upcoming regulatory changes.
SMI ranges from -100 to +100, and each score comes with a confidence level:
Net buying across all three sources. Insiders are loading up, institutions are increasing, politicians are buying.
Mixed signals. No clear conviction. Some insiders buying, some selling. Institutional flows are balanced.
Net selling. Insiders are exiting, institutions are trimming, politicians are selling. This often precedes price weakness.
3+ data sources with 8+ events (trades) detected. You can trust this signal because multiple smart money actors are aligned.
2+ sources with 4+ events. This is useful but not definitive. One of the three data streams is still building.
Only 1-2 events total. Early signal forming. Wait for more data before acting. Use this as a watch, not a buy/sell signal.
This is the fundamental test of business quality. A company is only creating value when its Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) exceeds its Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC). Invyra displays both metrics side-by-side so you can see the gap instantly.
Invest $1 into the company's business. If it generates $0.20 in annual profit, that's a 20% ROIC. The higher the ROIC, the more efficiently the company converts capital into returns. A 20%+ ROIC is exceptional and often indicates a strong moat.
ROIC Formula (simplified): Operating Profit After Tax ÷ Invested Capital = ROIC%
Invyra calculates this from the latest 12 months of financial data. A company with a 15%+ ROIC is a capital-efficient machine. A company with <5% ROIC is sloppy with money.
WACC is the minimum return a company must earn to satisfy both its debt holders (creditors) and equity holders (shareholders). It's a blended average weighted by the company's capital structure.
In plain English: If a company's cost of debt is 4% and cost of equity is 10%, and the company is 50% debt and 50% equity, WACC ≈ (0.50 × 4%) + (0.50 × 10%) = 7%.
Invyra derives WACC from beta (stock volatility), the risk-free rate (from 10Y Treasury), equity risk premium, and debt cost. When interest rates rise, WACC rises. When rates fall, WACC falls.
Every dollar invested generates returns above the cost of capital. Value is being compounded.
Each capital deployment returns less than it costs. The company is slowly eroding shareholder wealth even if it's profitable.
Price is what you pay. Intrinsic Value (IV) is what you get. The gap between them is where opportunity lives. Invyra's DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model projects the company's future cash flows, discounts them back to today's dollars, and adjusts for net debt. That's your intrinsic value.
We project free cash flows 20 years into the future. Year 1 grows from historical rates. As the company matures, growth normalizes. Terminal value (perpetual growth) is calculated conservatively.
Early years: based on historical revenue growth, industry growth, and management guidance. Later years: conservative reversion to GDP growth rate (~2-3%). We don't assume unrealistic perpetual growth.
Each future dollar is worth less today. We discount at WACC to reflect both the time value of money and the company's risk profile. Higher WACC (riskier company) = lower intrinsic value.
We subtract total debt and add back cash & equivalents. Enterprise Value + Cash - Debt = Equity Value. Divide by shares outstanding = value per share.
The stock is trading at a discount to its true worth. This is where value investors find opportunities. If IV is $100 and price is $70, you have a potential 43% upside (before risk factors).
The market has priced in the company's fundamentals accurately. No obvious edge. Good for holding quality companies, but not a bargain for new buying.
The stock is trading above its true worth. You're paying a premium that may not be justified by future cash flows. This is where risk exceeds reward, and where bubbles form.
Mature, predictable businesses (utilities, banking). Stable cash flows. Clear industry dynamics. Long operating history. Recent earnings growth.
Early-stage growth companies. Volatile earnings. Disruption risk. Unproven business models. High R&D dependency.